Impulse Responses To ENSO

El Nino and La Nina affects crops in a lot of different ways.  I’ve been looking at the response of agricultural yields over time to an ENSO event, where, depending on the dynamics of the social-natural system, impacts could persist for years after the impact or even emerge before the impact.

Here’s what country-wide production look like, in this impulse response framework.  Neither Chile nor Egypt show a response to La Nina, but they both have strong responses (which appear to oscillate) to Modoki El Ninos.


The map below shows areas where Maize is grown (anywhere but black).  Areas in white show no significant response from ENSO.  Colored areas deviate from grey in three bands: red for a response to traditional El Ninos, green for a response to Modoki El Ninos, and blue for La Ninas.


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